UBI (Universal Basic Income)

Whether we like it or not, in the next 20 years, the majority of jobs will be increasingly performed by robots and artificial intelligences.

We can complain as much as we want, but progress will not stop for us.

The question is not if, but rather WHEN this process will reach a critical level.

These days we are witnessing the first real mass uses, of the first drafts of artificial intelligences dedicated to the general public.

Even if still in beta, these artificial intelligences (AI) are already surprising people for their efficiency and versatility.

This is obviously only the beginning. A timid and fleeting look at the immense and revolutionary potential of these technologies.

But when the work of billions of people in the world will no longer be required, what will happen to the current economic system?

Simple. With massive unemployment, all these people will not have money to spend.

Consumption will collapse, leading to devastating deflation, and the current economic system will implode in an unprecedented secular spiral.

To avoid all this, sooner or later, the current economic system, where a salary is assigned exclusively in exchange for work/service will no longer be enough.

Certain jobs will remain, and new ones will be created.

Maybe innovative and highly specialized jobs will be developed, but such jobs will probably be fewer and fewer.

Today about 60% of the population is employed, but if one day only a minority were to work, this would become a problem for everyone.

Indeed, the earnings of 10% of the population will not be enough to support consumption and keep the economic machine running, as we know it today.

Here's why we will need to have 8 billion people, or at least a significant portion of the population that must be able to spend and buy goods and services.

The only way to achieve this, will probably be to provide them with a Universal Basic Income, which supports demand and keeps people alive during this great technological revolution.

In fact, without their consumption, our economy would collapse.

But what is UBI?

UBI is the acronym for Universal Basic Income.

Universal basic income, also known as UBI, is a program in which the state, or the administrative structure that will exist in the next 20 years, provides a regular payment to every citizen regardless of income or employment status.

Basically, there are two main visions behind UBI.

The first vision is what I call romantic and philanthropic.

This vision is to provide a basic economic security net for those in need and help reduce poverty by ensuring access to basic life necessities for all.

In summary, a financial cushion necessary for people struggling to make ends meet.

By providing a basic income, these individuals would theoretically be able to focus on education and training rather than worrying about how to pay for their basic needs.

By providing everyone with a basic income, everyone would be guaranteed a minimum of opportunities for success.

All of the above is the somewhat "idealistic" vision of UBI supporters.

Then there is the second vision, which is a bit more "cold and calculating" from economists, futurists, etc.

This idea is the realization that our economic system, absolutely needs consumers in order to prosper.

Therefore, the fact that everyone has a minimum purchasing power, guarantee that the system does not collapse,

while it benefits also the "rich/Entrepreneurs/investors".

In fact, thanks to UBI, rich simply become even richer,

having 8 billion potential customers for their products, instead of just 3 or 1.

In which way would the eventual expansion of UBI benefit the future minority of highly-specialized workers?

First of all, it must be imagined that in this futuristic scenario, simple jobs would already have been almost entirely replaced by robots, AI, etc., so workers would only be a minority of highly specialized people who, for some reason, cannot be replaced.

The advantage for these ultra-specialized workers would be that they could obtain an higher compensation.

In fact, for lower figures, they would prefer to be satisfied with UBI, which instead is creating a floor for compensation that the worker can easily demand.

Those companies that will need to hire such highly specialized people, will be pushed to pay a little more in order to secure such highly-skilled workers, who obviously for some reason cannot be replaced by robots, automation or AI.

Lastly, the last reason is the security of everyone.

In fact, by guaranteeing everyone a minimum amount and making sure that it is spent, this will significantly reduce crimes, violence and negative actions by those who otherwise, would not have been able to survive without committing illegal acts, or even violent revolts.

Clearly this amount will only allow survival, not prosperity.

Therefore, it will be in the person's own interest to specialize and train anyway, in order to then get a job that will allow them to earn much more, building personal projects, achieve their dreams, and contribute better to the collective.

Critics of universal basic income (UBI) argue that it would be too costly to implement for future governments and that it would discourage work and innovation.

They also claim that it would create a culture of dependency, with individuals becoming reliant on this government subsidy rather than working to support themselves.

Despite these criticisms, UBI continues to gain traction as a practical solution to address inequality and poverty, and to potentially support a future highly automated economy.

Several countries and cities, including Finland and Ontario, have already implemented pilot programs to test the feasibility of UBI, with promising results.

What role could CBDCs or other digital currencies play in all of this?